Tropical Meteorology Project Publications Available in PDF Format

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Blake, E. S. and W. M. Gray, 2004: Prediction of August Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 1044-1060.

Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, P. J. Klotzbach, and C. W. Landsea, 2007: Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts. WMO Bulletin, 56, 297-309.

Chan, J. C. L. and W. M. Gray, 1982: Tropical cyclone movement and surrounding flow relationships. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1354-1374.

Chan, J. C. L., W. M. Gray, and S. Q. Kidder, 1980: Forecasting tropical cyclone turning motion from surrounding wind and temperature fields. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 778-792.

Christy, J. R., B. Herman, R. Pielke Sr., P. J. Klotzbach, R. T. McNider, J. Hnilo, R. W. Spencer, T. Chase, and D. Douglass, 2010: What do observational datasets say about modeled tropospheric temperature trends since 1979? Remote Sensing, 2, 2148-2169, doi:10.3390/rs2092148.

Cocks, S. B. and W. M. Gray, 2002: Variability of the outer wind profiles of western north Pacific typhoons: Classifications and techniques for analysis and forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1989-2005.

Eastin, M. D., P. G. Black and W. M. Gray, 2002: Flight-level thermodynamic instrument wetting errors in hurricanes. Part I: Observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 825-841.

Eastin, M. D., P. G. Black and W. M. Gray, 2002: Flight-level thermodynamic instrument wetting errors in hurricanes. Part II: Implications. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 842-851.

Foltz, G. S. and W. M. Gray, 1979: Diurnal variation in the troposphere's energy balance. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1450-1466.

Fogarty, C. T and P. J. Klotzbach, 2014: The 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Blip or flip?. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, S106-S107.

George, J. E. and Gray, W. M., 1976: Tropical cyclone motion and surrounding parameter relationships. J. Appl. Meteor., 15, 1252-1264.

George, J. E. and Gray, W. M., 1977: Tropical cyclone recurvature and nonrecurvature as related to surrounding wind-height fields. J. Appl. Meteor., 16, 34-42.

Gray, W. M., 1965: Calculations of cumulus vertical draft velocities in hurricanes from aircraft observations. J. Appl. Meteor., 4, 463-474.

Gray, W. M., 1966: On the scales of motion and internal stress characteristics of the hurricane. J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 278-288.

Gray, W. M., 1967: The mutual variation of wind, shear and baroclinicity in the cumulus convection atmosphere of the hurricane. Mon. Wea. Rev., 95, 55-73.

Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-700.

Gray, W. M., 1973: Cumulus convection and larger scale circulations. I. Broadscale and mesoscale considerations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 101, 839-855.

Gray, W. M., 1978: Reply. J. Appl. Meteor., 17, 419-420.

Gray, W. M., 1979: Tropical cyclone intensity determination through upper-troposphere aircraft reconnaissance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 60, 1069-1074.

Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Nino and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1649-1668.

Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II: Forecasting its variability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1669-1683.

Gray, W. M., 1991: Comments on "Gradient balance in tropical cyclones". J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1201-1208.

Gray, W. M., 1996: Forecast of global circulation characteristics in the next 25-30 years. 21st Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop.

Gray, W. M., 2009: Climate change: Driven by the ocean, not human activity. 2nd Annual Heartland Institute Conference on Climate Change.

Gray, W. M., 2011: Gross errors in the IPCC-AR4 report regarding past and future changes in global tropical cyclone activity. Science and Public Policy Institute, 122 pp.

Gray, W. M., 2012: The physical flaws of the global warming theory and deep ocean circulation changes as the primary climate driver. 7nd Annual Heartland Conference on Climate Change.

Gray, W. M., 2012: Fundamental importance of convective downdrafts and mass recycling within the tropical cloud cluster and the typhoon-hurricane. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 1, 130-141.

Gray, W. M., W. M. Frank, M. L. Corrin, and C. A. Stokes, 1976: Weather modification by carbon dust absorption of solar energy. J. Appl. Meteor., 15, 355-386.

Gray, W. M., J. D. Sheaffer, and C. W. Landsea, 1996: Climate trends associated with multi-decadal variability of intense hurricane activity. Chapter 2 in "Hurricanes, Climate Change and Socioeconomic Impacts: A Current Perspective", H. F. Diaz and R. S. Pulwarty, Eds. Westview Press, 49 pp.

Gray, W. M. and R. W. Jacobson Jr., 1977: Diurnal variation of deep cumulus convection. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 1171-1188.

Gray, W. M., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2011: Have increases in CO2 contributed to the recent large upswing in Atlantic basin major hurricanes since 1995? Chapter 9 in “Evidence-Based Climate Science”, D. Easterbrook, Ed., Elsevier Press, 27 pp.

Gray, W. M., and P. J. Klotzbach, 2012: US Hurricane Damage - Can Rising Levels of CO2 be Associated with Sandy's Massive Destruction? Colorado State University Publication, 23 pp.

Gray, W. M. and C. W. Landsea, 1992: African rainfall as a precursor of hurricane-related destruction on the U.S. East Coast. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1352-1364.

Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke and K. J. Berry, 1992: Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 440-455.

Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke and K. J. Berry, 1993: Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 73-86.

Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke and K. J. Berry, 1994: Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 June. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 103-115.

Gray, W. M., C. Neumann and T. L. Tsui, 1991: Assessment of the role of aircraft reconnaissance on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 72, 1867-1883.

Gray, W. M., E. Ruprecht and R. Phelps, 1975: Relative humidity in tropical weather systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 103, 685-690.

Gray, W. M. and B. Schwartz, 2012: The association of albedo and OLR radiation with variations of precipitation - Implications for AGW. 91st Annual American Meteorology Society Meeting, 18 pp.

Gray, W. M. and D. J. Shea, 1973: The hurricane's inner core region. II. Thermal stability and diurnal characteristics. J. Atmos. Sci., 30, 1565-1576.

Grossmann, I. and P. J. Klotzbach, 2009: A review of North Atlantic modes of natural variability and their driving mechanisms. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D24107, doi:10.1029/2009JD012728.

Hodanish, S. and W. M. Gray, 1993: An observational analysis of tropical cyclone recurvature. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2665-2689.

Kidder, S. Q., W. M. Gray, and T. H. Vonder Haar, 1978: Estimating tropical cyclone central pressure and outer winds from satellite microwave data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 1458-1464.

Kidder, S. Q., W. M. Gray, and T. H. Vonder Haar, 1980: Tropical cyclone outer surface winds derived from satellite microwave sounder data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 144-152.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2006: Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005). Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10805, doi:10.1029/2006GL025881.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2007: Recent developments in statistical prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Tellus A, 59, 511-518.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2007: Revised prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 937-949.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2008: Refinements to Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction from 1 December. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D17109, doi:10.1029/2008JD010047.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2010: On the Madden-Julian oscillation-Atlantic hurricane relationship. J. Climate, 23, 282-293.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: El Nino - Southern Oscillation's Impact on Atlantic Basin hurricanes and U.S. landfalls. J. Climate, 24, 1252-1263, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3799.1.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: The influence of El Nino - Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation on Caribbean tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 24, 721-731, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3705.1.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: A simplified Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme from 1 August. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16710, doi:10.1029/2011GL048603.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2011: Forecasting October-November Caribbean hurricane days. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D18117, doi:10.1029/2011JD016146.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2012: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Atlantic basin tropical cyclone rapid intensification. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D14104, doi:10.1029/2012JD017714.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2014: Prediction of Seasonal Atlantic Basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy from 1 July. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 115-121, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00483.1.

Klotzbach, P. J., 2014: The Madden-Julian Oscillation's Impacts on Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate, 27, 2317-2330, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00483.1.

Klotzbach, P. J. and E. S. Blake, 2013: North-Central Pacific tropical cyclones: Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Climate, 26, 7720-7733.

Klotzbach, P. J. and W. M. Gray, 2003: Forecasting September Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1109-1128.

Klotzbach, P. J. and W. M. Gray, 2004: Updated 6-11-month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 917-934.

Klotzbach, P. J. and W. M. Gray, 2005: Summary of 2004 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity and verification of seasonal forecasts. Shore and Beach, 73, 20-24.

Klotzbach, P. J. and W. M. Gray, 2006: Causes of the unusually destructive 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 87, 1325-1333.

Klotzbach, P. J. and W. M. Gray, 2008: Multidecadal variability in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 21, 3929-3935.

Klotzbach, P. J. and W. M. Gray, 2009: Twenty-five years of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09711, doi:10.1029/2009GL037580.

Klotzbach, P. J., R. A. Pielke Sr., R. A. Pielke Jr., J. Christy, and R. McNider, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21102, doi:10.1029/2009JD011841.

Klotzbach, P. J., R. A. Pielke Sr., R. A. Pielke Jr., J. Christy, and R. McNider, 2010: Correction to "An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere." J. Geophys. Res., 115, D01107, doi:10.1029/2009JD013655.

Knaff, J. A., 1997: Implications of summertime sea level pressure anomalies in the tropical Atlantic region. J. Climate, 10, 789-804.

Knaff, J. A., 1998: Predicting summertime Caribbean pressure in early April. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 740-752.

Landsea, C. W., G. D. Bell, W. M. Gray and S. B. Goldenberg, 1998: The extremely active 1995 Atlantic hurricane season: Environmental conditions and verification of seasonal forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1174-1193.

Landsea, C. W. and W. M. Gray, 1992: The strong association between western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense Atlantic hurricanes. J. Climate, 5, 435-453.

Landsea, C. W., W. M. Gray, P. W. Mielke and K. J. Berry, 1992: Long-term variations of western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense U.S. landfalling hurricanes. J. Climate, 5, 1528-1534.

Lee, C. S., R. Edson and W. M. Gray, 1989: Some large-scale characteristics associated with tropical cyclone development in the North Indian Ocean during FGGE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 407-426.

Lopez, R. E., 1973: Cumulus convection and larger scale circulations II. Cumulus and mesoscale interactions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 101, 856-870.

Martin, J. D. and W. M. Gray, 1993: Tropical cyclone observation and forecasting with and without aircraft reconnaissance. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 519-532.

Mielke, P. W., K. J. Berry, C. W. Landsea and W. M. Gray, 1996: Artificial skill and validation in meteorological forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 153-169.

Mielke, P. W., K. J. Berry, C. W. Landsea and W. M. Gray, 1997: A single-sample estimate of shrinkage in meteorological forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 847-858.

Modahl, A. C. and W. M. Gray, 1971: Summary of funnel cloud occurrences and comparison with tornadoes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 877-882.

Novlan, D. J. and W. M. Gray, 1974: Hurricane-spawned tornadoes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 476-488.

Novlan, D. J. and W. M. Gray, 1975: Reply. Mon. Wea. Rev., 103, 1022-1023.

Shea, D. J. and W. M. Gray, 1973: The hurricane's inner core region. I. Symmetic and asymmetric structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 30, 1544-1564.

Shoemaker, D. N., W. M. Gray, J. D. Sheaffer, 1990: Influence of synoptic track aircraft reconnaissance on JTWC tropical cyclone track forecast errors. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 1201-1208.

Weatherford, C. L. and W. M. Gray, 1988: Typhoon structure as revealed by aircraft reconnaissance. Part I: Data analysis and climatology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1032-1043.

Weatherford, C. L. and W. M. Gray, 1988: Typhoon structure as revealed by aircraft reconnaissance. Part II: Structural variability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1044-1056.